These movements put three rate cuts back on the table, but one report does not make or break monetary policy, which means confirmation through inflation data next week, and additional labor data over the next month, will provide a better picture of whether inflation is trending in line with the Fed’s expectations.
On Friday, markets were exhilarated by a cooler-than-expected Jobs Report, which left the Dow Jones up 450 points. This prompted significant discussion over whether these numbers signal material weaknesses within the labor market, and whether the Federal Reserve will stick with its forward guidance predicting three cuts to the Federal Funds rate.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000 in April. It is nowhere near the 315,000 jobs which were added in March, but nowhere near the 100,000 average job seen preceding the Great Recession, or the 110,000 average seen preceding the Dot.com bubble. In other words, job growth is healthy, but trending closer to levels which could signal an upcoming slowdown in the labor market. Similarly, unemployment ticked up to 3.9%, marking the 27th month in which it has remained below 4%. However, this movement was largely driven by a fall in the number of older workers (over 55); the number of prime-age workers (25 to 55) also declined. Together these data points suggest that the labor market remains tight but may have experienced its first material cooldown in April.
The Jobs Report also showed average hourly earnings fell below 4%, refuting the notion of potential stagflation through a wage-price spiral. This is especially important given a hotter-than-expected Employment Cost Index print, which showed wages generally rose within the first quarter of 2024. These movements put three rate cuts back on the table, but one report does not make or break monetary policy, which means confirmation through inflation data next week, and additional labor data over the next month will provide a better picture of whether inflation is trending in line with the Fed’s expectations. This means that the first of these rate cuts likely not come in June, but probably later this summer.
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board.
Burnout can be a real challenge for organizations, but clear communication between managers and employees is an important tool to address it.
Burnout is a worrisome phenomenon in the modern workplace. Defined by the Mayo Clinic as “stress linked to work,” it can lead to one feeling emotionally and physically worn out or even “useless, powerless, and empty.” While not a medical diagnosis, it is nevertheless a widely reported phenomenon with implications for workers’ wellness and performance as well as business productivity.
How widespread is job burnout? A recent ASA Workforce Monitor survey found that four in 10 workers (43%) report feeling burned out at their job. Of those who feel burned out, six in 10 say they’d be hesitant to share workload concerns with their boss (59%), and two-thirds would be hesitant to tell their boss they feel burned out (65%).
These troubling data points suggest that communication is critical for working with employees to alleviate stress. In fact, “prioritizing consistent employee communication” is the first in a list of tips from Forbes to help employers manage burnout within their firms. Here are some other tips for managers and leaders to consider as tools for fighting employee burnout.
Source: ASA Workforce Monitor, americanstaffing.net/workforce-monitor.
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