Weekly Economic & Business Outlook

Post-Election Jitters? Take a Number.

With another U.S. election in the rearview mirror, many market watchers are wondering what will happen next. While the victory of former President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris is a rather historic feat, it does offer some clues regarding what we may expect for the rest of 2024 and early-2025. According to the U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, President Trump’s first foray into politics engendered significant turbulence prior to the elections because many investors were not sure what to make of his policy positions. When he won in 2016, markets experienced record trepidation over future policy in the aftermath of the elections, which saw an increase in U.S. Treasury yields, and increased momentum in equities due to bullish market sentiment because of anticipated growth-focused economic policies over the coming term.

In 2024, the trends appear to be similar with a few minor differences. Prior to the election, investors were less nervous given their familiarity with President Trump and his policies four years earlier. However, with last week’s win over Vice President Harris, volatility in the index has soared to reach similar levels as 2016—this time due to concerns over the economic impact of specific policy measures, including a zero-tolerance immigration posture as well as a pledge to expand tariffs on goods from China and other countries.

Unlike 2016, economic volatility could persist at or beyond levels in 2016 as concerns stem from perceptions of the incoming administration’s policies rather than lacking understanding of them. Treasuries continue to rise, but whether that translates into a greater boom in equities and a powerful stock market to start 2025 remains to be seen.

Tools to Improve Employee Retention

The labor market in the U.S. has cooled considerably, with both the hires rate and quits rate below prepandemic levels—and down from heights last seen in late 2021 and early 2022. iHire’s Talent Retention Report 2024, a survey of 1,544 U.S. job seekers and 555 employers, bears this out, finding that 38.5% of workers had left a job in the last year, compared to 43.3% in 2023.

Despite lower turnover in 2024, understanding why workers leave can help companies avoid lost productivity due to turnover—something more than a third of employers (34.7%) experienced in the past year.

So why did workers quit their last job? Perhaps surprisingly, unsatisfactory pay is only the sixth most common reason on the list (20.5%), suggesting there are many other avenues for improving the employee experience and reducing turnover. The top three reasons cited by employees have to do with workplace culture and experience.

• Toxic or negative work environment (32.4%)
• Poor company leadership (30.3%)
• Unhappy with manager/supervisor (27.7%)

Workers go on to report in the survey that an employer would be more likely to retain them if its company culture offered a positive work environment (83.4%), commitment to a healthy work/life balance (68.1%), and mission, vision, and values that align with those of an employee (48.7%).

While compensation and benefits are important, salary should not be the only tool in the toolbox when it comes to retention. Taking steps to support a positive work environment is a worthwhile effort in driving longer tenure among your employees.