If U.S. consumers, supported by a steady labor market, continue to spend despite accelerating economic headwinds, they could be the lynchpin that saves the economy from unraveling into a recession.
Weekly Economic Outlook
04/29/2025
Can a Stable Labor Market Save the Soft Landing?
As part of the jobs week data being released next week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will announce its first estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) on Wednesday. The data will provide insight into momentum within the labor market and its impact on economic activity. GDP could be a sorely needed bright spot amid a recent deluge of worrisome numbers. Over the past year, labor churn has stalled due to higher compensation costs facing employers and lower leverage among employees. So, while employers have been disincentivized from onboarding additional staff, exemplified by a decline in job openings and hires, conditions within the broader economy have allowed them keep existing personnel, exemplified by a muted rise in layoffs. This generally means that households have had a steady source of income from which to continue their consumption of goods and services despite higher costs induced by inflation, interest rates, and tariffs. As shown in the graphic below, while growth in nonfarm payrolls has slowed to 1.2%, consumption has remained steady at 5%, suggesting that a healthy labor market, despite no growth, still has provided households with the ability to actively participate within the economy and bolster its growth.
Consensus estimates forecast GDP growth at just 0.4% in 1Q2025, due to lower levels of business investment and government spending as well as an enlarged trade deficit. However, all three of these components comprise about 40% of GDP, which means that economic activity still hinges on the consumer. If U.S. consumers, supported by a steady labor market, continue to spend despite accelerating economic headwinds, they could be the lynchpin that saves the economy from unraveling into a recession. The main drivers behind these headwinds, including changes in tariffs and monetary policy, first emerged in late February and March, which means incoming GDP data might not accurately capture their true impact on economic activity. This means Wednesday’s estimates of economic activity will reflect households’ propensity to consumer when supported by a stable labor market while also faced with increased uncertainty over future conditions.
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls vs. Personal Consumption Expenditures

Weekly Staffing Research Outlook
04/29/2025
The shaky economy means that job-seeking graduates recognize employers have some leverage in the labor market right now; however, recruiters may need to be prepared to address concerns about job security and company health when speaking with candidates.
The Class of 2025 Job Search Mindset
With the spring semester ending, many students are in a period of transition as they look to embark on new careers. In a turbulent economy, what does the market look like for prospective graduates? LaSalle Network recently published its “Class of 2025 Insights” report, which found that 57% of soon-to-be graduates had already accepted a job offer (and 47% of those are still applying to other opportunities). Separately, the Monster “2025 State of the Graduate” study found that 83% of job-seeking impending graduates are optimistic they will land a job shortly after graduation.
However, the shaky state of the economy is not lost on this population. Monster also found that 75% of graduates worry there will be an impact on their job prospects due to the economy; 63% say employers have more leverage to find the best candidates in today’s entry-level job market.
While graduates are hesitant to apply to firms that have a salary freeze (83%), experienced recent layoffs (80%), or reported below-average earnings in the prior year (77%), many realize they won’t be able to find a job at their preferred company (48%), and 42% have broadened their job search criteria to more company or industry options. A majority of graduates (84%) applied for a job they knew was not the right fit out of desperation.
The shaky economy means that job-seeking graduates recognize employers have some leverage in the labor market right now; however, recruiters may need to be prepared to address concerns about job security and company health when speaking with candidates.
Reasons for Applying to a Job That Was Not the Right Fit
