The blip in core inflation could see some extension in November due to factors beyond the Fed’s control…despite these factors, the long-term balance of risks remains tilted in favor of the labor market. Hiring continues to trend below prepandemic levels and job growth remains concentrated within a handful of sectors.
Weekly Economic Outlook
10/15/2024
September’s CPI Report Keeps Rate Cuts on Deck for November
Following a blowout jobs report, markets received chillier inflation news last week that revealed a slowdown in the progress of core prices back to optimal levels. The year-over-year core Consumer Price Index rose by 3.3% with shelter costs accounting for more than 75% of the CPI’s growth in September. Yet, gains showed increased diversification among some goods and services, including transportation, apparel and medical expenditures. Some experts began suggesting the Fed’s latest 50-point cut was a mistake, and that the balance of risks remains tilted in favor of inflation.
But when looking at the bigger picture, September’s data affirmed several long-term trends. First, the bulk of the price growth remains concentrated in the housing market. Given its often-slow response to changes in interest rates, we can expect to see continued progress within future inflation reports as the Fed continues to lower interest rates further. Second, energy prices remain on a downtrend despite an increase in potential supply chain disruptions at-home and abroad—which suggests limited spillover effects onto other goods and services akin to the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The blip in core inflation could see some extension in November due to factors beyond the Fed’s control, including hurricanes Milton and Helene, ongoing strikes affecting Boeing and the U.S. Maritime Alliance, geopolitical tensions driven by the elections, extended conflicts within the Middle East, and increased economic competition with China. Yet, despite these factors, the long-term balance of risks remains tilted in favor of the labor market. Hiring continues to trend below prepandemic levels and job growth remains concentrated within a handful of sectors. Hence, we still believe the Fed will stick to its initial outlook of enacting a 25-point cut to interest rates in November and December that will diminish risks in the labor market and keep the economy on course for a soft landing.
CPI Continues to Trend Toward Optimal Levels

Weekly Staffing Research Outlook
10/15/2024
Hiring in today’s labor market is fraught with challenges, so keeping an eye on market intelligence is important for staffing firms. Educating clients on the importance of an efficient hiring process and being creative in job offer negotiations can help recruiters land candidates.
Hiring Trends Going Into 2025
Despite a slower labor market, hiring top talent can still be a competitive endeavor. The 2025 Salary Guide from Robert Half, which includes survey results from hiring managers at employers in a range of sizes across the U.S, contains several key insights to keep in mind when looking to lock down candidates in the year ahead.Â
While hiring activity has slowed somewhat in 2024, nearly half of hiring managers (48%) expect continued difficulty meeting candidates’ desired pay level. At the same time, four in 10 say today’s job seekers are more likely to negotiate salary.
Another challenge for hiring managers looking to place staff is a lengthy hiring process, which can lead to further staff turnover due to higher workloads (45%), losing candidates to competitors (39%), and ultimately higher recruitment costs overall (42%).Â
Finally, with a majority of hiring managers reporting difficulty finding qualified candidates (80%), they are using a range of tactics to boost hiring efforts. Offering hybrid work and flexible schedules (41% each) are outpacing measures such as increasing starting salaries (38%) or offering signing bonuses (30%) to make offers more competitive.
Hiring in today’s labor market is fraught with challenges, so keeping an eye on market intelligence is important for staffing firms. Educating clients on the importance of an efficient hiring process and being creative in job offer negotiations are strategies recruiters can employ to land candidates.
Employers Depend on a Variety of Offerings to Boost Hirings
