Weekly Economic & Business Outlook

Looking Ahead: Key Sectors Driving Long-Run Workforce Growth

In August the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its annual employment projections for the next decade. These projections address the number of jobs available in various occupations and industries by 2033. Analyzing these data can be helpful in identifying where within the job market there are hot spots of labor demand both now and in years ahead. 

Continuing a trend that has been evident in recent years, the health care and social assistance sector will experience the greatest total job gains with 1% growth per year and 2.2 million workers added by 2032. Demographic shifts, including an aging population and a rise in chronic health conditions in the U.S., ensure that this sector will need for workers long into the future.

Technology and the skills needed to utilize it are driving job growth within the professional and information sectors—the two sectors tied for the second-fastest growth at 0.7% per year. Demand for skills related to cybersecurity, the increased volume of data available for analysis, and the emerging use of artificial intelligence are major factors driving computer and math occupations.

Also of note are the jobs being created within the clean energy economy as demand for electricity rises in tandem with greater data storage capacity needs and increasing electric vehicle adoption. In addition to renewable energy, green domestic manufacturing is expected to garner a boost particularly in battery production, even though the manufacturing sector in aggregate is not expected to see a great increase in employment levels. Staffing companies that can source talent with skill sets important to expanding occupations will not only be able to land clients in 2024, but also in 2030 and beyond.

NY Fed Survey: Job Seeking at Highest Level Since 2014

Three in 10 workers (28.4%) surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said they had searched for a job in the prior four weeks, according to the July 2024 report of the Survey of Consumer Expectations. This latest reading is the highest since March 2014, and nine percentage points higher than July 2023 (19.4%). Employees 45 years old or younger (33.2%), those without a college degree (31.4%), and those earning $60k a year or less (38.0%) are all more likely to be on the job search. This comes as satisfaction with wages, nonwage benefits, and promotion opportunities have each declined somewhat since the year-ago survey.

However, while workers may be warming to the idea of getting a new job, employers are not yet ramping up hiring. The hires rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics stood at 3.5% in July 2024—up from 3.3% in June, but markedly below the series high of 6.1% in May 2020 or even the more recent peak of 4.6% in November 2021. Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. reported that the 79,697 in planned hiring announced by companies through August 2024 is the lowest total since the company began tracking the metric in 2005—the year-to-date total is even lower than the 80,387 jobs announced from January through August 2008. 

Staffing companies have been contending with a stagnant labor market in 2024—companies have been hesitant to hire, and candidates have been uncertain about moving to a new role. While employer demand still needs to turn around before staffing can recover from its recent woes, renewed interest in job-searching among candidates is a welcome sign.